Combined Solutions Total Potential
A portfolio of scenarios are presented that combine the solutions presented above. They are intended to serve as examples of potential ways to achieve the stated peak demand reduction goal. Also shown is a baseline strategy that gives the total reductions possible with a pure ESCO strategy at a penetration rate of 7%. This rate was chosen in order to illustrate that without higher participation goals, the outcomes fall short of the goal.
Table 10: Annual Peak Load Reduction Scenarios
| Combined Solutions Potential | Baseline | Scenario 1 | Scenario 2 | Scenario 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Penetration Rate (%) | ||||
| ESCO Model: 0.49 MW reduction per 1% penetration | 7 | 50 | 27 | 20 |
| Enhanced ESCO Model: 1.2 MW reduction per 1% penetration | - | 33 | 27 | 25 |
| New Construction: 5.1 MW reduction for 100% penetration | - | - | 100 | 100 |
| Institutions Unknown | - | - | - | 20 |
| Total Peak Load Reductions |
3.4 MW | 50 MW | 50 MW | 50 + MW |
The ESCO- only model will achieve a 49 MW reduction in peak load at a 100% penetration rate. A mix of ESCO and enhanced ESCO models will achieve the 50 MW peak reduction load. However, these penetration rates are quite high, thus RMI has compiled other strategies that will allow the City of Cambridge to meet their reduction goals. All scenarios are summarized below.
- ESCO in existing residential and commercial sectors + enhanced ESCO in existing residential and commercial sectors at very high penetration rates.
- Aggressive new residential construction efficiency requirements approaching 100% participation + a mix of regular ESCO in existing residential and commercial sectors + enhanced ESCO in existing residential and commercial sectors at higher participation rates.
- Institutional efficiencies + aggressive new residential construction efficiency requirements approaching 100% participation + regular ESCO in existing residential and commercial sectors + enhanced ESCO in existing residential and commercial sectors at lower participation rates.
Table 10 represents examples of penetration rates coupled with strategies that will achieve a 50 MW reduction in peak energy use. Depending on which strategies are pursued and the amount of aggression in which they are pursued, the penetration rates can be adjusted for each strategy and the total peak load reduction can change.
The peak load reductions possible in the institutional level are large though unknown at this time. It is recommended that more analysis be completed and discussion undertaken with Harvard, MIT, and others to determine their roles in the resulting strategy.
Ultimately, a combination of strategies will provide the most robust strategy for achieving a peak load reduction of 50 MW and beyond. By diversifying the ways in which efficiency is achieved, lower penetration rates for each sector are permissible, and more opportunities for energy savings can be pursued.